Comment: Metal Gear Solid’s path after Hideo Kojima

Our research showed that Metal Gear Solid 5: The Phantom Pain would shift 3.3m copies in the first year, see below. This has been confirmed by the circle-jerk around the title’s success versus Avenger’s Age of Ultron. This is impressive, but unlikely to force a U-turn from Konami to refocus on AAA versus pachinko and mobile titles.

The Know reported that Microsoft had approached Konami to acquire the Silent Hill franchise for $1 billion, later revealed to be entirely in equity. This would have given Konami 0.3% of Microsoft given current market capitalization of £357 billion. Whilst this ownership sounds minuscule, Microsoft shareholders would never clear such a deal.

What does this mean for Metal Gear? Based business valuation methodology, the franchise is worth $450 million, in stock from a stable company and you don’t get Hideo Kojima. He has been the key figure in the 30+ Metal Gear titles, and prolific with another 20+ titles under his belt, see below. Given the impact of P.T., one assumes that Hideo Kojima is more interested in exploring the horror genre in the short term and with his unceremonious exit from Konami: Acquiring the Metal Gear IP doesn’t get Kojima.

There are unlikely to be any suitors for such an arrangement, so the best option for Konami would be syndication. Eurogamer has highlighted the potential of the Metal Gear franchise and with titles like Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance, the series can accommodate a myriad of titles. With the relevant success of the latest title, studios should strike whilst the irons hot and approach Konami to produce the next title in the series.

@MegaAlligator


Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance and Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain sales data (millions)

PS3 (1) PS4 (1) Xbox One (1) Xbox 360 (1) PC (2) Total
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance 1.4 0.4 0.5 2.3
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 2.6
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (3) 0.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.7 3.3

– represents not applicable.

(1) Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance and Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes sourced from VGChartz
(2) Represents steam ownership. Sourced from steamspy
(3) Distribution across titles taken from Metal Gear Solid V sells three times more copies on PS4 than Xbox One, Destructoid. Also represents sales in the first year.

Released video game titles where Hideo Kojima has been credited as director (D), game designer (G), producer (P) and/or writer (W)

Data present in timeline is sourced from Wikipedia article on Hideo Kojima

Featured image is taken from Konami’s twitter page.

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